July 2025 Market Commentary

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In this month’s market commentary, we explore the widening gap between cautious economic forecasts and a surging equity market. While most economists predict modest GDP growth and highlight lingering inflation risks, equity markets continue to rally — driven by a potent mix of sentiment, option dynamics, and political optimism.

Darwin’s model didn’t join the early V-shaped rebound — and that’s by design. It avoided the drop, stayed defensive, and is now cautiously increasing exposure to equities while maintaining core protection through gold and cash. This month, the model shifted slightly toward what we call a Drug-Induced Recovery — a scenario supported by short-term policy boosts and tariff relief, but not by fundamental economic strength.

đŸ‘‡ Watch the full podcast segment below



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