August 2025 Market Commentary

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In this month’s market commentary, we explore a fundamental truth that investors often overlook: the more you try to beat the S&P 500 every month, the more likely you are to lose sight of long-term success.

Darwin’s model continues to balance patience with positioning. While equity exposure has increased modestly, core defensive assets like gold remain in place. The economic map has shifted — Darwin no longer sits squarely in a stagflationary recession scenario. Instead, it's now acknowledging a higher probability of a Drug-Induced Recovery, driven by sentiment, policy hopes, and tariff easing. But caution remains. With markets technically in overbought territory, the risk of a correction — especially in an erratic news cycle — remains on Darwin’s radar.

Using real portfolio data and behavioral insights, the episode dismantles the myth of the perfect portfolio. Even a strategy that doubles the S&P over a decade and has zero drawdowns still “loses” nearly half the time at the monthly level. That’s the reality of managing to risk — not chasing performance. And in a world driven by headlines, emotional reactions, and political noise, the real alpha lies in staying calm, staying invested, and educating clients on what actually works.

đŸ‘‡ Watch the full podcast segment below



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