Winning by Not Losing

  In this month’s market commentary , we explore a fundamental truth that investors often overlook: the more you try to beat the S&P 500 every month, the more likely you are to lose sight of long-term success. Darwin’s model continues to balance patience with positioning. While equity exposure has increased modestly, core defensive assets like gold remain in place. The economic map has shifted — Darwin no longer sits squarely in a stagflationary recession scenario. Instead, it's now acknowledging a higher probability of a Drug-Induced Recovery, driven by sentiment, policy hopes, and tariff easing. But caution remains. With markets technically in overbought territory, the risk of a correction — especially in an erratic news cycle — remains on Darwin’s radar. In this month’s podcast, "The Impossible Ask," Sudhir Holla, CEO of myStockDNA, breaks down the unrealistic expectations placed on advisors: outperform the market and avoid drawdowns — all at once. Using real...

Market Report - August 1, 2025 🧠 Market Report - August 1, 2025 Summary This market analysis report synthesizes recent asset class performance and insights from an expert economist panel representing both progressive and conservative views. The analysis employs the Moneyball methodology, guiding asset allocation by following the money across different economic regimes. The current economic environment suggests a transition towards an inflationary growth regime, characterized by strong GDP growth and easing inflation, but with caution in the labor market and investment sectors. This report has been prepared by ECO, an AI Economist and Market Analyst developed by myStockDNA. Market Report Market Analysis Report Prepared by ECO - the AI economist created by myStockDNA This market analysis report synthesizes recent asset class performance and insights from an expert economist panel representing both progressive and conservative views. The analysis empl...

In this month’s market commentary , we explore the widening gap between cautious economic forecasts and a surging equity market. While most economists predict modest GDP growth and highlight lingering inflation risks, equity markets continue to rally — driven by a potent mix of sentiment, option dynamics, and political optimism. Darwin’s model didn’t join the early V-shaped rebound — and that’s by design. It avoided the drop, stayed defensive, and is now cautiously increasing exposure to equities while maintaining core protection through gold and cash. This month, the model shifted slightly toward what we call a Drug-Induced Recovery — a scenario supported by short-term policy boosts and tariff relief, but not by fundamental economic strength. 👇 Watch the full podcast segment below

Market Analysis Report - July 1, 2025 🧠 Market Report - July 1, 2025 Summary This market analysis report has been prepared by ECO, the AI economist developed by myStockDNA, taking into account recent asset class performance and insights from an expert economist panel representing both progressive and conservative views. The analysis employs the Moneyball methodology to guide asset allocation, focusing on where the money flows across different economic regimes. Market Report Market Analysis Report Prepared by ECO - the AI economist created by myStockDNA This market analysis report has been prepared by ECO, the AI economist developed by myStockDNA, taking into account recent asset class performance and insights from an expert economist panel representing both progressive and conservative views. The analysis employs the Moneyball methodology to guide asset allocation, focusing on where the money flows across different economic regimes. Recent Economic...

As of mid-2025, U.S. equity markets are rallying—driven by a mix of sentiment, options market dynamics, and forward-looking policy optimism. This surge comes despite restrained macroeconomic forecasts from most professional economists, resulting in a growing disconnect between Wall Street’s optimism and Main Street’s data. The Darwin model, focused on managing downside risk, has remained cautious through the rally but is now increasing equity exposure modestly in response to the market’s momentum— while maintaining significant protection primarily through gold and cash equivalents.  The Economist-Equity Disconnect Forecast Divergence Forecasts for 2025 remain split: Conservative economists , such as the Federal Reserve and University of Michigan RSQE, expect U.S. GDP growth between 1.3% and 1.9% , citing elevated inflation, policy uncertainty, and a softening labor market. The Fed’s median projection is 1.4% with downside risks prevailing . Liberal and policy-aligned f...

Darwin’s June Playbook: Cautious, Calculated, and Ready In this month’s commentary, we unpack Darwin’s latest allocation adjustments amid a persistently complex macro backdrop. While changes are subtle, they’re strategic—crypto exposure has been dialed back to realign with target risk levels after strong gains, while bond and equity allocations have nudged upward to reflect a cautiously opportunistic stance. Defensive assets like gold and cash remain core, signaling ongoing stagflation concerns from our AI economist. We also dive into the intriguing “TACO trade”—a tongue-in-cheek market pattern described as “Trump Always Chickens Out.” This segment explores how Darwin’s risk-aware model navigated May’s politically charged rally, prioritizing discipline over FOMO. The takeaway? Darwin isn’t chasing the rally but is prepared if it holds. That’s dynamic risk management in action: adaptive, unemotional, and data-driven. Watch the full video below:

Markets Expected to Drop – So Did Darwin In May 2025, Darwin's UMAi portfolios responded to tariff threats by reducing exposure to high-risk assets. As designed, the models prioritized risk control — and underperformed the surging market. Instead of correcting, the market rallied. Why? Enter the TACO Trade — short for “Trump Always Chickens Out.”  It was coined by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong. Just a light-hearted note here — the term is meant to describe a recognizable market pattern and isn’t a political statement. We don't take political sides, and our tacos are always served without bias.  This pattern sees sharp rhetoric spooking markets, only to be followed by walk-backs that reverse losses. And this time, the relief rally left Darwin looking cautious and under-performing for the month.  But that’s not a mistake. That’s by design. Visualizing Fear, Greed, and Discipline Let’s explore this with a scatter plot showing UMAi Growth portfolios' p...